Seasonal variations in mortality are well-documented, with higher mortality typically observed in winter and lower in summer. This pattern reflects multiple contributing factors, including ambient temperature, infectious disease circulation, and population vulnerability. Our multi-country analysis found that temperature accounts for a substantial portion of this seasonal variation, particularly in temperate and continental regions. Under climate change scenarios, warming is projected to increase mortality during warm seasons while reducing it during cold seasons, although cold-season mortality is expected to remain high. In Japan, a projection study of emergency ambulance dispatches among older adults estimates a 15 percent increase in annual cases by the 2040s, along with a transition from a winter-dominated to a dual-peak seasonal pattern, with rising summer demand alongside sustained winter demand. These findings underscore the need for public health systems to prepare for increased service pressures and shifting seasonal health risks in a warming and aging society.

12:10 – 12:15　Introduction
Associate Professor, Kim Schumacher (Q-AOS Coordinator)

12:15 – 12:40 "Seasonality in Mortality and Health Under a Changing Climate - Navigating the Dynamics”

Associate Professor, Lina Madaniyazi
(School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University)

12:40 – 12:50 Q&A

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